I don't do statistics. Well, I do do them when I'm pressed, and when I do, I find them very helpful, but statistics are not my first love. What I do do is experience!
My experience in the St. Paul real estate market this year:
- The number of transactions did experience a little increase starting midyear. Sellers started to get more realistic in their pricing, and buyers surfaced as they realized the mortgage rates were still low and they could get a good price on a home. But, when the total average income for St. Paul REALTORS® has taken a nose dive, you know the market has changed!
- Every purchase or sale in my experience this year was less than the comparable sales in the neighborhood. Maybe it's my extraordinary negotiating ability? (That's a joke for those who don't know me.) No, I think not. It's more likely that sellers began to take the lower offers rather than not be able to sell at all.
- Comments from the listing agents reflect an overall sense of the market. When the first offer is 19% of the original list price (that's significant) and the agent sarcastically remarked, "You gotta love this market!", but still presented the offer and the seller countered instead of being insulted, it reflects a change in the market.
- When buyers think they can ask for major concessions the week of closing and the seller makes the concessions, you know the market has changed.
- When work colleagues commiserate about their listed houses not getting anymore showings and want to know how on earth did you sell your house, you know the market has changed.
- When sellers bring cash to the closing table in order to sell their homes, you know the market has changed.
- When a foreclosure auction is held in Minneapolis and the New York Times covers it, you know the market has changed.
- When St. Paul real estate agents are working harder (showing more houses without the buyers purchasing and spending more time marketing without the home selling) for lower annual income, you know the market has changed.
- When real estate agents don't want to take listings, you know the market has changed.
My take on the market tends to agree with Doug Duncan. Stabilization is probably another year off. Despite that knowledge, buyers are still buying and real estate is still my first love. Sellers can't cry over the money they might have made on their home IF they had sold a couple years ago. Reality is the St. Paul market is different than two years ago. We've had our seven fat years and we're now moving into our more lean years. We'll all eventually adjust and things will stabilize again. It's all part of the 15 year cycles that real estate seems to go through. I'm back in the same market I was in when I started real estate . . . only with more experience. I made it the first time, and the buyers and sellers will make it through this time. With time, we'll all adjust.
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