Real Estate Snippets

St. Paul Real Estate Sales June 2008

This chart is based on information from the REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE OF MINNESOTA, INC for the period June 1, 2008,  through June 30, 2008.  Clicking on the chart will enlarge the image so that it is readable.

Pending sales have increased significantly in June compared to last month which is normal for our area.  Expired listings have decreased somewhat but not significantly, and closed sales have also increased.  The number of active listings on the market has remained pretty constant compared to last month.  The average sale price has decreased from $194,808 in May to $160,000 for the month of June.  The short sale and foreclosure inventory has a direct impact on the decrease in the average sales price for this month.

St. Paul and Minneapolis Real Estate Market Summary

The St. Paul Area Association of REALTORS® published a press release last week.  The release summarized the St. Paul and Minneapolis area real estate market based on figures from the Regional Multiple Listing Service which covers the 13 county metro area.  The summary (remember this is for the 13 county metro area) includes the following figures:

• Pending sales of existing single family homes (houses and condos/townhomes that have accepted purchase agreements but have not yet closed) for May increased 5% over April this year.
• Pending sales of existing single family homes for May of this year decreased 7.59% compared with May of 2007.
• The number of single family homes listed this May as compared to May of 2007 decreased by 5.7%.
• The absorption rate (the number of months it would take to sell all listed single family homes at the rate they sold that month) was 8.3 in April 2008 and 7.9 in May 2008.  This is a decline from 14 in December 2007.  A lower rate is a sign of the market recovering, according to Greg Bauman, president of the St. Paul Area Association of REALTORS®.
• New listings have also decreased by 16.21% when May of this year is compared with May, 2007.
• New listings for the first five months of 2008 have declined by 11.04% compared to the first five months of 2007.
• Closed home sales for May, 2008, increased over April, 2008, by 18.96%.
• Closed home sales for May, 2008, compared to May, 2007, declined by 13.45%.
• The median sales price for the 13 county area for May, 2008, fell 9.89% from that of May, 2007.  This year's median sales price for May is $205,000 compared to last year at $227,495.

A decrease in the number of active listings, the number of new listings, and the number of month's supply (absorption rate) on the market is a good sign for the St. Paul and Minneapolis area real estate market.  It's not terribly significant that home sales increased in May as compared to April because sales always increase in the spring and early summer months.  The decrease in median price is significant to home buyers as well as home sellers, but from opposite views.  Buyers, once again can afford a house, whereas sellers may look at the decrease in price as a loss.  Although we can't consider these stats amazingly great, they are somewhat encouraging.  A slow recovery seems on its way.  The full press release can be viewed here.

St. Paul Real Estate Sales May 2008

This chart is based on information from the REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE OF MINNESOTA, INC for the period May 1, 2008,  through May 31, 2008.  Clicking on the chart will enlarge the image so that it is readable.

Total number of listings for May compared to April is down by more than 1200 during a time when listings normally are increasing.  A decrease in the supply of homes (inventory) is good for the market as there is less competition for each home that is for sale.  The number of sold listings is up by a very small amount and pendings (houses that have purchase agreements but have not yet closed) are way down this month.  Since spring is the time when sales are usually rising, the decrease in pending sales is unusual.  It will be interesting to see what June statistics will produce.

St. Paul Real Estate Sales April 2008

This chart is based on information from the REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE OF MINNESOTA, INC for the period April 1, 2008,  through April 30, 2008.  Clicking on the chart will enlarge the image so that it is readable.

St. Paul real estate figures for the month of April show an increase of about 250 homes that are active in St. Paul.  The number of new listings is similar to that of March.  Closed or sold homes increased in April which is normal for the spring rush.  Expired listings increased, but off market numbers decreased.  The number of houses with accepted purchase agreements was slightly higher.  Average list price and sale price decreased about $20,000 in each category.

National Real Estate Statistics 2008

First American Core Logic, a leader in residential analytics of mortgage data, released new national statistics on April 22.   Using their LoanPerformance Home Price Index criteria, 36 states experienced a housing price decline over the last 3 months ending with February 2008, but only 28 states saw a year over year price decline.   According to this latest press release, the Minneapolis, St. Paul, Bloomington Core Based Statistical Area experienced a 3 month decline of 4.6% and an annual decline in house prices of 8.98%.  The full press release and how St. Paul compares to other CBSAs can be found here.

To confuse the public and contribute to differing opinions around the water cooler, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (Oh, man, that's a mouthful!)  also published a press release on April 22.  The OFHEO's monthly House Price Index is calculated from home purchases using Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac funding for their mortgages.  As a result, this HPI is based on homes that cost no more than $417,000.  According to OFHEO, national home prices fell 2.4% as of February, 2008.  The complete press release from OFHEO is here.

If nothing else, these different stats show how important it is to know what criteria is used in collecting data.  Some of the differences in the two reports are based purely in the source of each organization's statistical data.  Again, knowing your local market is terribly important, because your local market could be holding strong whereas the county next door could be declining swiftly.  Call your Saint Paul real estate agent (that's me!) to find out what is true for your specific neighborhood.

 

St. Paul Real Estate Sales March 2008

This chart is based on information from the REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE OF MINNESOTA, INC for the period March 1, 2008,  through March 31, 2008.  Clicking on the chart will enlarge the image so that it is readable.

The change in St. Paul real estate figures for the month of March as compared to February are a good demonstration of why real estate needs to be viewed on a local basis.  Even within the city of St. Paul, some neighborhoods are still holding strong with sale prices but some MLS areas have shown drastic declines in average list price and average sale price last month over February.  Phalen (MLS area 714), Central (MLS 742), and MacGroveland/River Road (MLS 750) all showed substantial declines in prices last month.  Balancing the declines were Riverview/Cherokee (MLS 728), Downtown/Capitol Heights (MLS 741) and Town Country/Merriam Park (MLS 750) whose average sale prices increased in March. 

St. Paul Sales February 2008

This chart is based on information from the REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE OF MINNESOTA, INC for the period February 1, 2008,  through February 29, 2008.  Clicking on the chart will enlarge the image so that it is readable.

There is good news and bad news in this chart.  Compared to the numbers from January, 2008, the number of active listings has decreased by about half.  That is a good thing for the St. Paul housing market because there isn't so much inventory flooding the St. Paul market.  The number of new St. Paul listings has fallen as well.  The number of expired, off market listings, and houses accepting a purchase agreement have all increased which contributes to the decrease in St. Paul real estate inventory.

The bad news for St. Paul home sellers is that the average sales prices and the average list prices of homes has fallen along with the number of houses on the market.  Most sellers are moving up to a more expensive or larger home.  Along with taking a "hit" on the price of the sale of their smaller home, today's sellers will benefit from the decrease the seller of their new home is making to entice them to buy.  Larger homes have usually taken a larger discount than the entry level home, so the moving up home buyer has an advantage when s/he purchases their new home.

St. Paul Sales January 2008

This chart is based on information from the REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE OF MINNESOTA, INC for the period January 1, 2008,  through January 31, 2008.  The chart is too small to read as it fits in my blog, but it will enlarge if you click on it.

The St. Paul areas in the chart are based on the MLS boundaries and are different from St. Paul's neighborhoods.  The Kings Map has a map showing the MLS boundaries for those wanting to identify which area their home is in.  Better yet, you can give any real estate agent a call (including me) and we can tell you what MLS area your St. Paul home is in.

January normally is a slower month in St. Paul real estate so one would expect to see a drop in listings and home sales.  This month shows a decline in the overall number of active listings but the number of sales, new listings, and pending sales are up.  But then, so are the number of expired listings (houses whose listing contract has ended) and off market listings.  Possibly the reason that the number of total sales is higher than December's is because the average St. Paul list price has decreased and so has the average sales price.

Despite the media scare about the St. Paul market, sales are still happening.  As spring approaches and prices continue to become more affordable, it would be expected that the St. Paul house sales will continue to slowly increase.

2007 Ramsey County Real Estate Numbers

Prior to 2006, real estate agents were like spinning tops in the real estate market.  The first 5.5 years of this century showed records in real estate sales until the sales abruptly halted in the fall of 2006.  January and February, 2006, had median price increases of around 10%.  Those two months are historically slow in St. Paul real estate so an increase of 10% in median price was a significant jump.  Four months in the beginning of 2006 had strong increases in median price which counterbalanced the sudden end of the St. Paul real estate boom.  The 2006 year end median price still showed an increase of 1.64% despite the end of escalating prices. 

The Ramsey County figures published by the Regional Multiple Listing Service in January showed a decrease in the 2007 annual median price by 3.93% (almost 4%) as compared to the 2006 year end figures.  For Ramsey County, a drop that large in median price is significant.  The consumers felt it. The overall number of closed sales in Ramsey County dropped  by 17.39% and the dollar volume of closed sales also dropped by 18.38%.  Unlike 2006 where the dollar volume of closed sales still increased, the 2007 decrease in dollar volume of sales reflected the actions taken by sellers to sell their homes.  Sellers who had to sell last year, slashed their home prices in a rational effort to attract buyers. 

Whereas the median price decrease seems gloomy, it really isn't as terrible as it could be.  Many areas throughout the nation experienced double digit decreases in median price.  Because our economy is relatively stable in the St. Paul area, we took a smaller hit than other parts of the nation.  Sellers who bemoan the "loss" on their sale are experiencing an equally good, or better, savings on their next purchase.  The market definitely is not what it was in the first 5 years of this century, but we really are doing okay.

St. Paul Sales December 2007

This chart is based on information from the REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE       OF MINNESOTA, INC for the period December 1, 2007, through December 31, 2007.  To see the figures full size click on the image.

The St. Paul areas in the chart are based on the MLS boundaries and vary from St. Paul's local neighborhoods.  A good example is that there is no Frogtown, Greater Frogtown, Thomas Hamline, etc., in the MLS areas, but there is an area called "Central" which does not have a St. Paul neighborhood corresponding to that name.  The MLS areas are mapped in the Kings Map book for those wanting to identify which area their home is in.  Better yet, you can give any real estate agent a call (including me) and we can tell you what MLS area your home is in.

The factor that shows how long it would take to sell the entire housing inventory is called the absorption rate.  It is found by dividing the number of homes listed in a month by the number that sold or became pending.  In the month of December there were 6,547 St. Paul houses listed as active.  Only 345 houses closed in December.  If the number of homes that accepted a purchase agreement (pending) is added to the 345 sold, a total of 1,568 were under contract in December.  At that sales rate, it would take a little more than 4 months to sell every houses listed in December IF no new listings went on the market.   

Four months is a long time to wait to sell a house.  To try to attract buyers, St. Paul home sellers are lowering their prices and offering other incentives.  The houses that could model for "Better Homes and Gardens" are still selling close to the list price, but others are making concessions in order to sell.